The Eagles said they were undefeated because of Saquon Barkley’s layoff. The reviews back that up more than you might think

PHILADELPHIA — Jalen Hurts wasted no time clearing the air.

The Philadelphia Eagles quarterback spoke to his running back directly on Monday night and shared a message with reporters. Hurts was disappointed in the 22-21 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, of course. But he wasn’t directing that frustration at Saquon Barkley after Barkley’s fall in the last game.

“We didn’t play at that time,” Hurts said. “I trust him every moment. He’s a hell of a player. He gave us a great spark in those times.

“It wasn’t for us tonight. … We’ll be better than that. “…

The drop in the air at Lincoln Financial Field doesn’t need to define the Eagles’ season. According to some advanced analytics it did not mention the loss that dropped Philadelphia to 1-1.

Let’s clear it.

After Falcons running back Bijan Robinson failed to convert on fourth-and-1 from the Atlanta yard line, the Eagles got the ball back, up 18-15 with 5:38 to play.

Their chance to win, according to NFL Next Gen Stats’ probability of winning model: 86 percent.

As the Eagles moved 29 yards down the field thanks to a 26-yard run from Barkley’s six, the odds continued to be in their favor.

Then Philadelphia faced a third and 3. Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore watched as the Falcons defense began to pack the box. So Philadelphia didn’t move away from its top player, but the team trusted him to swing left to right and then right to catch.

Hurts’ pass hit both of Barkley’s hands before the running back lost it. Philadelphia set up for a field goal.

“Make the game over,” Barkley said afterward. “I dropped the ball. Leave my group today. We shouldn’t put security in that position.”

Barkley’s responsibility was not surprising. The New York Giants pick with the second overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft has shown responsibility throughout most of his six seasons with his division rival.

However, when Barkley threw the game, did he really throw the ball in the game? His teammates and coaches say he doesn’t — and there’s evidence to back them up.

Possible wins are just one metric to measure the impact a play has on the outcome of a game. The surprisingly small impact Barkley had on the results shows just how bad it had to go for Philadelphia to end up losing.

The Eagles had a 99% chance to win before the downs, according to the Next Gen Stats model, and a 94% chance after a 3rd-and-3. When Eagles punt Jake Elliott connected on a field goal forget to extend Philadelphia’s lead from 3 points to 6 with 1:42 to play, their chance of success was still 85%.

The Falcons’ 70-yard drive in just 65 seconds scuttled that opportunity. Falcons safety Jessie Bates III tackles Hurts with 27 seconds to play.

“We will all have things we want,” Sirianni said. “We are all responsible for this loss.”

In 2 weeks, Barkley has proven to be a lucrative investment for the Eagles

Barkley assured Hurts he would improve from the drop.

“I can sit here and complain and be upset about it, or I can be a great athlete and go back to the drawing board,” Barkley said. “I’ve done that game many times. I miss that game, too.

“I have to stand up for myself, based on what I do, and I can promise the guys in this locker room that I will be better.”

Barkley has already exceeded expectations after Philadelphia signed him in free agency in March.

The NFL’s financial practices have shifted toward placing higher values ​​on running backs, especially second-year contracts, in part because of concerns about the veteran’s long-term streak, and in part the other is due to the belief that design innovation and offensive investment can compensate for the platform’s backwardness. talent.

In other words: Some teams looking to save money somewhere believe that going back is their safest bet.

If a few good players come together to produce 60% of what a great player would be for 10% of the money, for example, most NFL teams will take that trade.

The Eagles bucked that trend when they signed Barkley to a three-year deal worth $37.75 million with $26 million guaranteed that pays him $13 million each this year and next.

Barkley’s touchdowns are third in the league and his average annual rating is fourth.

In two weeks, he is confirming the investment.

After averaging 88.7 scrimmage yards per game in 14 games with the Giants last season, Barkley is averaging 124 yards from scrimmage through two weeks with the Eagles — a mark of his best since 2018, when he posted 126.75 per game as a rookie.

Barkley’s 102 rushing yards per game surpasses his previous high by 20 yards and his 2023 output by 33.3 a game. And while two weeks is a small sample size, his output is against what seemed like contenders in the Falcons and Green Bay Packers.

Only Alvin Kamara has scored more points than Barkley’s three.

And Barkley’s league-high 52 carries have directed the defense’s attention away from Hurts, who is also developing the art of the breakout game that has helped fuel the Eagles’ NFC title campaign over the past two seasons. ago.

Hurts’ 85 rushing yards Monday night surpassed his 6.5 yards per attempt last season, one of his 2023 marks. The two are working well together.

“Some things open up when they need to, and they did,” Hurts said of his offer to run. “Obviously it wasn’t enough to win.”

Philadelphia will need more firepower on Sunday when they visit the New Orleans Saints (2-0), whose 91 points in two weeks are 21 more than the second-place Arizona Cardinals. Hurts and Barkley will need to carry a heavy load then as they did Monday night, as receiver AJ Brown is working through a hamstring injury.

Their teammates expect them to do just that — including the next opportunity to tie the game last game first.

“We know he’s going to make these plays [and] you know he’s going to make these plays,” former defensive end Brandon Graham said of Barkley. “We all trust each other out there. We let it slide today. It’s disappointing but it’s a good lesson for us. … As a good team, we’ve got to make sure we don’t let opportunities slide because that’s what happens — you’re going to be set.

We’ve been on the other side of it, coming back because of other people’s mistakes.